The first shoots of global recovery are being widely reported, evidenced by US GDP growth of 3.5% in the Third Quarter of 2009 and buoyant figures from the petrochemical majors. If the multiple that applied on the way into the recession also applies on the way out, then lubricants demand should grow by 12-15% in the coming year. We shall see!
Automotive, including the heavy truck sector, offers mixed news on the recovery front although generally in the right direction. Volkswagen's most recent numbers are positive but for Caterpillar, after laying off more than 22,000 employees in 2009, they now only expect to re-hire 550 by the end of next year despite some new joint ventures.
At the recent UEIL conference in Istanbul the merits of the Turkish market were highlighted. With a high population growth rate and until 2009 a strong economic growth performance that in many ways mirrors the great Chinese growth market, Turkey looks like a key lubricants markets in the coming years. This is reinforced by this month's news of a pipeline deal with Russia and Italy that will carry crude from Russia and Kazakshtan to the Turkish Mediterranian hub of Ceyhan.
Sebastian Crawshaw, Chairman OATS