Many people may be unaware that the Eurozone is now running a current account surplus that is the largest in global history, double the size of China’s! But that surplus is coming at a significant price, with slow or negligible economic growth, extraordinary misery for a large proportion of the European unemployed and IMF predictions of the region slipping back into recession without radical action.
PMI across the Eurozone has moved into negative territory, with consumer confidence evaporating. Retail PMI is in the low 40s for France and Italy; at its lowest point for 53 months in Germany. Meanwhile Italian unemployment levels are more than 12% and a staggering 24% in Spain. Youth unemployment is far worse - in some cases close to 50%.
The automotive market is also feeling the squeeze, with European car sales off 20% from the their peak. VAG's Chairman, Dieter Zetsche, found very little to give him optimism during his speech at the Paris Motor Show - predicting global growth of 3-4%, at least one percent lower than previous estimates.
Car sales in Russia were particularly badly affected - down 26% in August as Western sanctions start to bite and the Rouble hit a new low against the Dollar, further reducing the strength of the Russian economy. However, this also impacts on Germany, where Russia is a key trading partner. Clearly, something has to give. It can only be hoped that the action being urged by the IMF will include some of the Eurozone surplus will be used to provide Quantitative Easing (QE) in Europe in the same way it has been used successfully in the US and the UK (now the fastest growing western economy).
Having seen the Ukraine and Syrian crises develop, the world now risks serious contagion from the Ebola virus. CDC in the US is forecasting 1.4m people becoming infected globally. With a 50-70% mortality rate that means up to one million deaths. No wonder Governments are beginning to take action. In 2003 SARS had a serious economic impact despite only 8000 cases resulting in around 800 deaths. Ebola has already surpassed SARS and if it becomes established outside of Africa it could have a truly terrible impact - both human and economic.
A glimmer of hope amidst the gloom is from falling oil prices. This is effectively a massive economic transfer from the producers to the consumers. But more is needed if Europe is to be lifted out of stagnation. Unless that happens European lubricants demand will continue to shrink and companies will increase investment in other markets whilst having to concentrate on further efficiencies - i.e. “doing more with less”.
That is what earlFUSiON, the new OATS platform is designed to achieve, enabling our customers to integrate data from a range of sources and derive real consumer benefits. Throughout our 30 year history we have demonstrated a passion for innovation and for designing solutions that are value-adding for our clients. earlFUSiON is now set to revolutionise the industry again through the way oil companies approach customer engagement.
The platform is made up of components which can be integrated using industry standard interfaces rather than relying on proprietary systems or software. As a result we can deliver even more flexible outputs tailored exactly to each client’s needs. earlFUSiON provides a fantastic start to our fourth decade of delivering exceptional service to our customers.
If you have not already discussed this with us, we look forward to sharing the details with you in the very near future. Alternatively, to find out more or comment on anything you have read in this month's Bulletin, simply contact us by e-mail or follow our updates on social media via Twitter @Oats_Ltd, Facebook, LinkedIn and Google+.
Sebastian Crawshaw
Chairman, OATS