Global lubes demand is set to rise by more than two percent annually according to a report by Freedonia Group.
The increase, which would take demand levels to 41 million metric tons by 2015, has been driven by strong economic growth since the global recession hit in 2009. The report indicates that Asia will continue to drive consumption, followed by Africa and the Middle East. Eastern Europe is also highlighted for significant expanision.
Moderate demand is the prediction for Central and South America with North America and Western Europe also seeing below average increases.
Motor engine oil retains its top ranking as the largest lubes market, with developing Asian countries, China and India likely to see rapid expansion as a reflection of significant predicted growth in their domestic car parcs.
As with previous reports from other analysts, Western Europe and North American markets are set to continue their gradual decline, in line with reduced car production and sales combined with the closure of lubricants blending plants. The continued trend toward increased drain intervals, partly caused by high performance lubricants has also contributed to the downturn.
Manufacturing and other markets will see the fastest growth in lubricant demand until 2015, with China leading the Asia/Pacific region, while the continued industrialisation of countries in Central and South America and the Africa/Mideast regions will also help to boost the manufacturing lubes market, according to the report. Bio-lubes also gain a mention with increased demaned despite their higher price tag.
Meanwhile, a study by analysts RPI has found that the Russian lubricants market has seen increasing demand from car manufacturers and consumers. Strong vehicle sales has led to an expected annual growth of lubricants by around four per cent, equating to some 765,000 metric tons by 2017.
Russia’s total passenger car lubricants demand alone is expected to reach 351,000 tons in 2017, including factory fill volumes. Heavy-duty lube demand is set to rise to 280,000 tons annually by 2017, while demand for light commercial vehicle lubes could rise to as much as 105,000 tons, while buses will require some 32.500 tons, the report claims.