IEA changes its oil demand forecast


The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand forecast for 2014.

The agency is now stating its forecast for demand growth is 1.1 million barrels a day, up 100,000 barrels on its previous estimate.

The Agency believes the European economy is showing signs of improvement (based on a Eurostat report in October) and oil-fired power production in other regions is higher than expected.

However, despite apparent upwards trends in consumerism and vehicle growth - particularly in China and the other BRICS and MINT countries - the IEA does not identify world goods and private transport as a major short-term driver of oil demand.  In fact, the largest unknown for estimating future national and regional oil demand appears to be the transport sector.

The IEA's transport-sector policy is aimed at reducing dependence on oil, specifically setting a threshold of 450 ppm (parts per million) CO2 in the atmosphere and less than a 20 C rise in world average temperatures by 2045.

In order to achieve this goal, the agency claims that 70% of global car sales (equating to some 80-85 million per year) will need to be advanced vehicles by 2035 including hybrids, plug-in hybrids and all-electrics.