The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting a moderate drop in China's demand, but remains on target to be the world's top oil user by around 2030.
The Agency is lowering its forecasts for Chinese oil demand and output from 9.996 million barrels-per-day (bpd) to 9.913 million bpd in 2012. The IEA predicts that a slowing in the domestic economy, combined with an unexpected fall in onshore and offshore production, will have a moderate but noticeable impact on demand.
The organisation's predictions for oil production have also shrunk by 110,000 bpd to 4.2 million bpd, due in part to the closure of the Penglai oil field after a series of spills last year.
Despite reduced daily production, throughput looks more optimistic after several extraordinary months at the end of 2011. In November, throughput levels reached a record-breaking 9.25 million bpd, only to be bested one month later by December's figures of 9.28 million bpd. Both PetroChina and Sinopec have announced plans to upgrade their refineries in 2012, which they predict will increase runs by 6% and 3.8% respectively.
The marginal dip in oil demand is unlikely to influence China's trajectory towards becoming the world's top oil user by 2027. A new report from BP, entitled Energy Outlook 2030, forecasts global oil demand will reach 103 million bpd by 2030 and China, already the world's largest energy consumer as of June last year, will continue to drive up demand. BP claims that China looks likely to overtake the US as the top oil importer by 2018 and as the world's highest oil consumer as early as 2027.
Other reports forecast a slightly slower growth. America's Rice University expects China to replace the U.S. as in oil demand by as late as 2040, even considering the unprecedented growth of China's automarket, while ExxonMobil see China's growth peaking at around 2030, then plateauing as economic maturity sets in and expansion begins to settle.