IEA predicts tightening OECD supplies as global fuel demand rises


OECD inventories tighten as global fuel demands increase according to Agency.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned there could be upward pressure on oil prices as world oil markets tighten, draining inventories.

Although it's too early to be seriously concerned, the IEA has raised its 2013 global oil demand forecasts, saying "OECD inventories are getting tighter - a clean break from the protracted and often counter-seasonal builds that had been a hallmark of 2012."

However, the IEA underlined the complexity of the market, exemplified by influences on Saudi supply which can include the weather and seasonal maintenance rather than price alone.  Although the IEA raised its estimate of OPEC crude and stocks for 2013 by 100,000 bpd, to 30 million bpd, it is still below the current production.

The IEA said it raised its forecast for global oil consumption in 2013 by one percent above 2012 levels. Non-OPEC production was projected to rise by 980,000 bpd to 54.3 million bpd, the highest growth rate since 2010.

The oil trade in many countries is affected by a wide variety of influences including regonal political tensions and the risks of abrupt tax and trade policy changes. Most recently, the kidnapping and murder of foreign workers at the In Amenas gas field has seriously affected the outlook for Algeria's energy sector.