Winners and losers in the oil price fall


The fall in oil prices creates winners and losers.

Oil prices dropping from $100 a barrel to under $50, means good news for consumers and the global economy, but serious problems for some nations and the oil producers according to a BBC Report.

The main drivers are poor economic growth in some countries leading to weak demand, combined with an unprecedented surge in US production (the highest in 30 years) due to shale fracking.

Amongst the winners, the BBC highlights the oil-import dependent nations such as Japan, China and India. The latter takes in 75% of its oil needs from external providers but will need oil prices to stay low to keep the cost of fuel subsidies down.  With low inflation and weak growth, Europe is also benefitting from falling oil prices to stimulate economic output, with consumers making the most of lower energy prices in the winter months.

However, OPEC still refuses to cut production, partly in response to the US production levels, claims the BBC. The leaves the organisation's members facing a range of challenges as a result of falling revenue.

OPEC Members need a huge range of oil price thresholds to balance their budgets. The wealthier members, such as Saudi Arabia can withstand the deficits for some time because of huge reserves and a very small domestic population. The situation is reversed for the likes of more populous Iran, Iraq and Nigeria. Nigeria's energy sales account for more than 90% of the country's exports and thus requires higher oil prices to sustain the economy.

With inflation running at about 60%, Venezuela, one of the world's largest oil exporters, already has some of the world's cheapest petrol prices. Yet the government will not cut subsidies or raise petrol prices, keenly aware of the riots in 1989 sparked by a rise in domestic petrol prices.

Outside Opec, Russia's economy has been badly hit by a triple-whammy of oil prices, Western sanctions and a tumbling Rouble. According to the report, despite its volume of oil production, with round 70% of its total export income coming from oil and gas, the nation loses some $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price.

Russia also refuses to cut production.   "If we cut, the importer countries will increase their production and this will mean a loss of our niche market," said Energy Minister Alexander Novak.