BP looks ahead to 2050 in its Energy Outlook Report.
The company focuses on three scenarios:
- Rapid - The rapid fall in carbon emissions following the introduction of policy measures. Carbon emissions from energy use fall by around 70% by 2050 from 2018 levels.
- Net Zero - Significant changes in society and consumer behaviour and preferences reinforce the rapid policy measures. This increases the reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 to over 95%.
- Business-as-usual (BAU) - in which government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve as they have done in the recent past. Emissions in 2050 are less than 10% below 2018 levels.
While BP's Chief Economist Spencer Dale, says while that none of these scenarios will be correct, "... the Outlook uses these different scenarios to help better understand the range of uncertainty we face as the energy system transitions to a lower carbon world. Improving our understanding of this uncertainty is an important input into designing a strategy that is robust and resilient to the range of outcomes we may face.”
Key themes in the Report
- Energy demand increases, driven by increasing prosperity and living standards in the emerging world.
- Gobal energy systems are fundamentally restructured resulting in a more diverse energy mix.
- Increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation drives the falling oil demand over the next 30 years.
- Gas becomes more resilient with broad-based demand and increasing availability of supplies.
- Wind and solar lead the growth in renewable energy.
- The world continues to electrify.
- As the energy system decarbonizes, hydrogen and bioenergy grow.
- Policy measures lead by a significant increase in carbon prices will be needed alongside changes in societal behaviours and preferences. If these are delayed, an additional scenario, Delayed and Disorderly, is explored in the report.