Automakers will pay the price for missing 2020 Euro emission targets

OEMs' responses to CO2 reduction target vary widely, says a report.

Manufacturers such as PSA, Renault-Nissan and Toyota are likely to meet their Euro emissions targets before 2021, while OEMs like Daimler and BMW will have to expand their low-emission fleet, downsize or electrify their IC engines and use advanced energy recovery techniques in order to hit 2020 compliance levels.

A new Frost & Sullivan report examines key powertrain technologies like direct injection, gasoline turbocharging, engine downsizing and powertrain lightweighting.  It highlights the fact that emissions standards set tough targets on weigh reduction. However, it also states that an overall vehicle weight reduction of 100kg may give twice as much fuel saving as the targets require.

According to F&S, all OEMs are set to increase the number of electric vehicles, although in different proportions and using different technologies, while increasing diesel hybridisation is also expected to reduce non-compliance penalties.  However, recent discussions in Detroit made it clear the internal combustion engine still had a long future ahead of it.

Dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs coupled with medium and high torque engines, are expected to replace manual transmission vehicles progressively towards 2020.

The purchase price of vehicles will be affected by excess emission premiums paid by manufacturers, the report states. One gram above the target will cost millions of Euros for a mass-production manufacturer in 2021, making larger vehicles more expensive for their customers.